A
year into the most recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, defense an-
alysts are split on whether the conflict manifests major change in
the character of ground warfare or merely the introduction of tech-
nological upgrades that have little transformative impact. It is the
purpose of this paper to inform this debate.
To understand the significance of this war for the future of ground combat,
the paper will examine what is known publicly about the performance of
Russian and Ukrainian forces at the tactical and operational levels. It will
start by examining the ground force structures of the opponents. Then,
the paper will identify verities—the dimensions of their performance which
arm continuities in the nature of ground combat—and contrast them with
game changers—the attributes of forces’ performance which are signaling
transformational change in how ground combat is successfully prosecuted.
The paper concludes with a discussion of how the Ukraine game changers
should shape the strategies, operating concepts, programs, and plans of
US, allied and partner militaries.
Ground Force Structures
To begin, it is important to acknowledge that the bulk of each force’s
formations are armed with decades-old equipment and tactics. At the
start of the conflict, over 90 percent of each forces’ equipment—aircraft,
tanks, armored personnel carriers, logistics vehicles, and artillery—was
developed, and often produced, in the twentieth century; each side’s
personnel trained accordingly. To understand what is changing, therefore,
it is essential to focus on the impact of the small percentage of each force
that is modern.
Russian Ground Forces.
Prior to the war, many observers claimed that the battalion tactical groups
(BTGs) proved that the new Russian Army was innovative. Yet even the
BTGs were the product of experiments conducted in the 1980s. Observers
failed to note that the BTG commander was burdened with the control of
eleven organic units and up to fifteen additional attached direct support
Game-changers:
Implications of the Russo-Ukraine
War for the Future of Ground Warfare
ISSUE BRIEF
APRIL 2023 T. X. HAMMES
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Through the futures we forecast,
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allies and partners. As the character of
war rapidly changes,FD assesses the
operational concepts and defense-
industrial tools necessary to eectively
deter and defend against emerging
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