FLANNERY DOLAN, ABBIE TINGSTAD, BRYAN ROONEY, STEPHEN M. WORMAN, DAVID A. SHLAPAK,
EMILY YODER
Climate Futures and
South Asia 2042
Hazard Card Climate Game
C
limate change is a worsening challenge that will affect the entire world, generating such
hazards as heat waves, droughts, and flooding. While there is an immense amount of
uncertainty surrounding future climate change and its associated impacts, it is abundantly
clear that changes to the climate are occurring and will continue to occur, such that these
hazards will increase in frequency and severity as the Earth continues to warm.
1
As climate change alters the physical landscape, it will affect the geopolitical and national secu-
rity landscape as well. Sea level rise (SLR) will displace millions from their homes, droughts will
wreak havoc on crop yields, and heat waves will induce blackouts. The impacts of climate hazards
can be devastating depending on the affected population’s level of resilience. All these factors can
contribute to rising unrest and ulti-
mately culminate in conflict in the
absence of mitigating factors, such
as a stable government.
2
In addition,
when tensions already exist between
states, climate events may change
the local balance of power or create
situations in which one state might
see opportunity to make gains at
the expense of the other.
3
Climate
change could also drive new tensions
between states, such as competition
for control over increasingly scarce
common-pool resources.
4
Thus, the
impacts of climate change must be
considered when policymakers and
defense planners look toward the
future.
C O R P O R A T I O N
KEY FINDINGS
■ The magnitude of hazards resulting from climate change and
their associated impacts are deeply uncertain. Scenario-based
planning and analytic gaming are therefore useful methods for
exploring the flexibility in assumptions required when considering
climate change and its impacts.
■ A scenario-based climate hazard card game as a stand-alone
event provides an opportunity for communication and learn-
ing about climate change and its existing and potential future
impacts.
■ A scenario-based climate hazard card game conducted as part of
a traditional wargame provides a useful vehicle for updating play-
ers on the evolving physical hazards that influence gameplay.
■ In the future, developing a gaming community repository of cli-
mate data and associated hazards will help expand access to
credible ways of including more-specific climate and weather
information in games.
Research Report
